Uncertainty Planning
Master uncertainty planning to build robust agents that thrive in unpredictable environments
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0 / 5 completedTypes of Information Gaps
Not all uncertainty is the same. Known unknowns are things you know you don't know—missing data you can identify and potentially gather. Unknown unknowns are surprises you didn't even anticipate. Both require different planning approaches.
Known Unknowns (Anticipated Gaps)
Information you know is missing but can identify and potentially acquire. You're aware of the gap and can plan around it.
- • Flight price for next week (will know soon)
- • API response time under load (can test)
- • User's preferred date (can ask)
- • Server capacity next month (can estimate)
- • Gather: Actively seek missing data
- • Estimate: Use reasonable assumptions
- • Defer: Delay decision until info available
- • Bracket: Plan for range of outcomes
Key trait: You can ask questions like "What's the weather forecast?" or "Will the API be available?" You know what you need to know.
Interactive: Information Completeness
Adjust information availability to see how it affects planning strategy
Recommended Strategy:
High-risk - extensive fallbacks required
What Agent Knows
Agent Should Do
Gap-Filling Strategies
Active Information Gathering
Make info-gathering part of your plan. Query APIs, run tests, ask questions before committing to actions.
Probabilistic Reasoning
Assign probabilities to uncertain outcomes. Plan for most likely scenarios but prepare for outliers.
Just-in-Time Planning
Don't plan too far ahead when uncertainty is high. Make decisions as late as safely possible with current info.
Scenario Planning
Create multiple plans for different scenarios. "If A happens, do X. If B happens, do Y."