⚠️ Depegging Risks: When Stablecoins Fail

Learn from Terra/UST collapse and other depegging events

⚠️ De-Pegging Risks

Despite mechanisms to maintain stability, stablecoins can and do lose their peg during crises. Understanding historical de-pegging events reveals the risks inherent to each stablecoin type.

🎮 Interactive: Crisis Case Studies

Explore major de-pegging events to understand what causes stability to break:

💵

USDC De-Peg (March 2023)

March 10-13, 2023

Lowest Price
$0.87
Recovery Time
48 hours
Root Cause
SVB Bank Failure
Timeline
1
March 10
Silicon Valley Bank collapses
USDC had $3.3B at SVB
2
March 11 AM
Circle announces exposure
USDC drops to $0.87
3
March 11 PM
Mass panic selling
Volume surges 10x
4
March 13
FDIC guarantees all deposits
USDC recovers to $1.00
Lesson Learned

Even fully-backed stablecoins can de-peg if banking partners fail. Redemption uncertainty = price panic.

Total Impact

$10B+ liquidations, DAI affected via USDC backing

De-Pegging Risk Factors

🏦

Banking Risks (Fiat-Backed)

  • • Bank failure or freeze of reserves
  • • Regulatory seizure of accounts
  • • Redemption delays or failures
  • • Fractional reserve practices
📉

Collateral Risks (Crypto-Backed)

  • • Extreme market volatility (Black Swan)
  • • Liquidation cascades
  • • Oracle failures or manipulation
  • • Network congestion preventing liquidations
⚙️

Algorithmic Risks

  • • Death spiral (negative feedback loop)
  • • Loss of confidence = irreversible
  • • Requires perpetual growth
  • • No real asset backing
🐛

Smart Contract Risks

  • • Exploits and hacks
  • • Logic errors in peg mechanisms
  • • Governance attacks
  • • Upgrade vulnerabilities

Warning Signs of De-Peg Risk

🚨

Persistent deviation from $1.00

Trading consistently above/below peg for hours/days = mechanism failing

⚠️

Declining market cap

Users exiting → confidence loss → self-fulfilling prophecy

📊

Widening bid-ask spreads

Liquidity drying up → harder to trade at $1.00 → peg breaks

📰

FUD and regulatory news

Banking issues, lawsuits, regulatory threats → panic selling

💡

The Confidence Game

All stablecoins rely on confidence. When users believe the peg will hold, arbitrageurs step in to profit from small deviations, keeping the price stable. When confidence breaks, arbitrage stops working:

  • • Traders fear redemption won't work → won't buy below $1
  • • Liquidators fear collateral won't cover debt → won't liquidate
  • • Panic selling overwhelms buy pressure → death spiral

This is why UST went to $0.01 while USDC recovered from $0.87. Fiat backing + redemption guarantee = confidence restored.