The Global Restoration Opportunity

Global assessment: 2 billion hectares of degraded or deforested land. Not all suitable for restoration—some now cities, farms, deserts. Technically feasible potential: ~900 million hectares (Mha) could support forest regrowth. For scale: that's area of USA + China combined. IPCC estimates this could sequester 200-300 GtCO₂ over 30 years—equivalent to 5-10% of emissions reductions needed for 1.5°C pathway.

Tropical regions hold largest potential. Amazon, Congo Basin, SE Asia account for ~450 Mha of opportunity. High rainfall, fast growth rates, degraded land from logging/agriculture. But also highest deforestation pressure—restoring while preventing new clearing is the challenge. Success stories: Costa Rica increased forest cover from 26% (1980s) to 60% (2020s) through payments for ecosystem services and tourism revenue.

Costs vary widely by region and method. Natural regeneration in tropics: $50-200/ha. Active planting in temperate zones: $500-2,000/ha. Agroforestry in developing regions: $1,000-3,000/ha. Total to restore 900 Mha at average $300/ha = $270 billion. For comparison: global fossil fuel subsidies exceed $600 billion/year. Carbon credit revenue at $50/tCO₂ could cover 30-50% of costs.

Co-benefits often exceed carbon value. Forests prevent $1+ trillion in flood damages annually, support livelihoods for 1.6 billion people, provide habitat for 80% of terrestrial biodiversity, regulate local rainfall, purify water supplies. In Brazil, forest restoration increases agricultural productivity downwind through rainfall recycling. In China, reforestation reduced sediment in Yellow River by 90%, saving billions in dredging costs.