Climate Projections and Scenarios
What models tell us about Earth's possible climate futures
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Section 4 of 5Understanding Future Climate Scenarios
Climate models don't predict a single future - they explore multiple pathways based on different assumptions about human choices. The IPCC uses Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) representing different levels of climate action, from aggressive mitigation to business-as-usual.
Interactive: Explore Climate Scenarios
Scenario Details: SSP2-4.5 (Moderate)
Moderate emissions reductions, some climate policies
Current Trajectory
With current policies, we're tracking between SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0. Stronger action can shift us toward SSP1-2.6.
Key Model Projections
🌡️Temperature
Global average temperature will rise 1.5-4.5°C by 2100, depending on emissions pathway. Land warms faster than ocean.
🌊Sea Level
Seas will rise 0.3-1m by 2100 from thermal expansion and ice melt. Continues for centuries even if emissions stop.
💨Extreme Weather
Heat waves, droughts, and heavy rainfall events will become more frequent and intense worldwide.
❄️Ice Loss
Arctic sea ice will decline dramatically, glaciers will shrink, and major ice sheets face long-term instability.
Regional Variations
Climate change doesn't affect all regions equally. Models show polar amplification (Arctic warms 2-3× faster), regional precipitation changes, and varying impacts on ecosystems and human systems.
Interactive: Regional Climate Impacts
Arctic Region
✅What We're Confident About
- • Global temperature will continue rising without emission cuts
- • Sea level will keep rising for centuries
- • Extreme weather events will intensify
- • Arctic ice will decline substantially
- • Ocean acidification will worsen