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CBDC Future Scenarios

Explore potential futures from utopian efficiency to dystopian surveillance—design choices today determine which world we inhabit tomorrow

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CBDCs Impact on Banks

The Crossroads Moment

CBDCs are inevitable. What they become is not. The same technology that enables frictionless payments can enable frictionless surveillance. The same system that includes the unbanked can exclude dissidents. Design choices made in the next 5 years will shape money for the next 50.

This isn't science fiction—it's architecture. Every CBDC decision (offline capability? interest bearing? holding limits? data retention?) creates a different future. We're not predicting the future; we're choosing between them.

The Scenario Spectrum

CBDC outcomes span from utopian to dystopian. Most countries will land somewhere in between, but the extremes illuminate what's at stake.

🌟
Utopian Vision
Instant payments, zero fees, financial inclusion for 1.4 billion unbanked, programmable aid delivery, climate incentives, transparent government
⚖️
Balanced Reality
Mixed outcomes. Efficiency gains + some surveillance. Privacy protections + some control. Democratic oversight prevents worst-case scenarios
👁️
Dystopian Nightmare
Total surveillance, social credit scores, programmable restrictions, political censorship, expiring currency, behavioral control via money

🎯Why Scenarios Matter

Governments claim CBDCs are just "digital cash." But cash is anonymous, offline, and uncontrollable. CBDCs are the opposite by default. Without deliberate privacy protections, the dystopian scenario is the path of least resistance. Utopia requires hard choices and technical sophistication most countries lack.

The Divergence Points

Three critical design decisions create vastly different futures. Every country faces these choices in the next 2-3 years:

Decision 1: Privacy Architecture
Path A (China): Central database. Every transaction logged forever. Full government visibility.
Path B (Europe): Zero-knowledge proofs. Transactions private by default. Auditable only with warrant.
→ This choice alone determines utopia vs dystopia
Decision 2: Programmability Limits
Unrestricted: Government can add any condition (expiry, location, merchant restrictions). Enables both aid precision and authoritarian control.
Restricted: No programmability. CBDC is just digital version of cash. Boring but safe.
→ This determines innovation vs safety
Decision 3: Offline Capability
Online only: Every transaction requires internet. Government can monitor/block in real-time. No payment freedom.
Offline enabled: Payments work without connection (like cash). Privacy preserved but double-spending risk exists.
→ This determines resilience vs control